5 Risks We Face: Why We Need This Shift
The American democracy, US culture, and the safety and stability of the US are all at risk for many reasons. Many Americans don’t appear to understand those risks – or the urgency of them. Not understanding what’s at risk is powerful and dangerous because it keeps people from fighting for things they don’t know are at risk; or that they don’t know they could be fighting for.
We’re better able to face, address, mitigate, and reduce risk if we can see it accurately for what it is. Denial is a powerful force: it masks the need for critical action in urgent moments such as this.
Explaining what’s at risk will be an important part of motivating people to make shift happen. That’s what Shift the Country is about.
What’s at stake in this moment is nothing short of the security, stability, safety, and continued existence of constitutional US democracy; in the world’s biggest superpower of a democracy.
The sections in Part 2 of this guide (or under the “About” menu on the website) have a cursory look at the risk to the US democracy, with a longer discussion about what could happen if the US democracy fails. The 5 sections below cover specific risks as they are most relevant to the work Shift the Country is catalyzing.
Why We Need This Shift – 5 Risks:
The US Democracy Is At Risk
Not Understanding What’s At Risk Is A Risk
There’s An Active Culture War & Increasing Instability
Faith Is Diminishing In Democracy & In The Social Contract
Frayed Social Fabric Is Depleting Our Collective Response Capacity
Related to these 5 risks – there’s also a rise in gun violence, in political violence, in political threats, in instability, in dehumanizing language, in aggressiveness, in hate crime, in steps toward violence, and in a national security threat from domestic violent extremists (DVE). This list of additional risks are worth calling out as they relate to several of the 5 identified risk areas discussed below; increase the intensity of all that is going on in the US; and add context to the overall risk landscape.
The 5 risk sections below contain key aspects as they relate to the Shift the Country work. Each section is not exhaustive but is meant to provide context and background for why this shift is critical.
Risk 1: The US Democracy Is At Risk
This is an expansion on the earlier “short story” paragraph in the prior section on the Dysfunctional Democracy. US democracy is under active attack, and at risk of failure. Key points:
If enough Republicans are elected in 2022 who are willing to override future election results or throw out future ballots or otherwise negate the popular (majority) vote in future elections, all future elections could be questionable. Elections and voting working properly where all votes are counted are absolutely the anchor to democracy.
Election deniers have won primaries for fall 2022 elections. Some of the offices they’re running for would oversee election results processing and certification.
There is a related push to get Republicans to get jobs as election processors to influence vote counting and certification, to suppress votes on the day of the election, to intimidate voters, to challenges ballots, and to otherwise interfere with election processes and results.
Elected Republicans are voting against certifying some election results in primary elections in summer of 2022 based on no evidence whatsoever that results shouldn’t be certified; despite court orders to do so; and with the raucous support of at least some voters.
One of the major threats to democracy is use of “the big lie” to “justify” weakening voting and election institutions, and to “justify” shifting power and decision-making in election oversight to favour the political party in power at the time the results are counted.
The Republican Party has pushed “the big lie” that the 2020 presidential election was stolen despite no admittable court evidence, available homeland security assessments declaring the election secure, and court rulings upholding the viability of election certifications.
The majority of Republican voters believe “the big lie” that the election was stolen.
There was an insurrection on the US Capitol in 2021 based on the “the big lie” that the election was “stolen;” with a related attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election, interrupt the peaceful transfer of power, and pull off a coup d’état. Elected and appointed officials were involved; many remain in office as US legislators with no repercussions since from the US DOJ, US House, or US Senate.
Voter suppression and election interference efforts are on the rise in many states from Republican legislators to deny the majority of voters access to vote or to have their vote counted. Efforts related to “the big lie” and the 2020 election specifically attempt to undermine the votes of Americans in more diverse, urban areas in swing states – again seeking to undermine and de-legitimize the rights of all Americans to representation.
Election oversight officials have received death threats; there are likely to be continued threats of political violence and election-day violence as election day nears.
Threats of political violence are on the rise, from: election oversight officials; US House January 6 Committee members; Republican Party campaign opponents; fellow legislators or colleagues in either party; ex-Republicans; “Republicans In Name Only (RINOs);” school board officials; public health officials; hospital personnel; and first responders.
Americans are not living in a shared reality with the same sets of facts. Unfounded conspiracy theories, disinformation, and lies are widely distributed to further amp up voter engagement, to raise political contributions, and to inspire threats and political violence.
Republican Party platforms in some states are adopting or legalizing anti-democratic stances, approaches, and laws.
One of the challenges to maintaining a strong democracy is that the US’ Constitutional structure is not set up as a pure democracy; where the power of the people converts to power as a simple majority in the levers of power and in decision-making. This set-up makes it difficult for the majority of voters to have true power in government no matter what – but it’s worse when one political party is attempting to solidify long-term minority party power.
The US is already susceptible to minority party governance, as both the US Senate and the Electoral College give rural states with lower populations disproportionate power – designed specifically to counter the choices of the majority of the population in urban centers. This provision protected wealthy, rural, pale, slave-owning men and states when the US was founded, and continues to facilitate disproportionate minority party power from rural states with lower populations in a country that claims it’s all about democracy.
Five presidents total have won the Electoral College yet lost the popular vote – including George Bush in 2000, and Donald Trump in 2016. Three current US Supreme Court justices were appointed by two of those presidents; adding to long-term minority party power.
The filibuster in the US Senate creates the rules-based requirement for a supermajority (60 votes) to pass most legislation in the Senate. The filibuster is a Senate-specific rule (not in the Constitution); whereas a simple majority would require only 50 votes plus one tie-breaker vote such as the Vice President (this is the current situation). This longstanding Senate that protects minority part rule contributes to the difficulty of any legislation passed in Congress, and to the public perception that even a supposed majority can’t get anything done.
If Democrats could elect 62 or more US Senators (62 to overrule hesitation from status quo Democrats Senators Manchin and Sinema), they might be able to get rid of the filibuster and make the Senate more democratic – while also actually passing more legislation, too.
Risk 2: Not Understanding What’s At Risk Is A Risk
Americans may not be taking seriously the urgency of the risks to the US democracy in 2022.
That is a challenge, because people who don’t understand that there is a risk have a hard time taking action to address that risk.
Humans normally have a hard time understanding risk. Few political leaders and media are making clear the urgency of the risk and what’s at stake in ways that highlight what could happen if the democracy were to fall – or even if permanent minority rule were solidified.
There is a default toward normalizing chaos and risk.
This normalizing of crisis happened through the Trump Administration; including through the pandemic as over 1 million American COVID-19 deaths have not been treated accurately as generally preventable, or as having been recklessly caused.
Despite that normalizing of crisis, the 2020 election shows where perhaps there was enough risk perception of what another Trump Administration would bring that enough Americans voted that the popular vote drove the Electoral College vote and Trump was voted out of office. Arguably, living through four years of the Trump Administration helped with risk perception.
We don’t have such a clear illustration of risk in 2022 as to what’s at stake if the democracy ceases to function as a democracy. It will be critical to help increase that risk perception.
Risk 3: There’s An Active Culture War & Increasing Instability
Books and dissertations could be written on the culture war. Long story short: we’re in one. It’s a culture war that pushes back on anything that evolves, challenges, or changes the status quo. It features fear, a perception that there’s not enough for everyone, scapegoating, “othering,” intolerance, bias, bigotry, misogyny, resentment, and false information, outright lies, propaganda, disinformation, and conspiracy theories. Much is designed to pull in and hold the attention of radio, TV, podcast, and social media audiences; to do so it has become increasingly intense and extreme.
The culture war as a phenomenon and term started in the 1980s – a decade or so after the civil rights era required desegregation and further expansion of voting rights. It began largely on talk radio, and started to pull disparate groups into a loose alliance by leveraging anger and pushback and anything that could evolve Americans past the status quo where mostly pale men have most of the money and political power. Abortion became a unifying force; tropes amplifying bias and intolerance made it in as well.
Ironically, the culture war leverages resentment from austerity: five decades of a Republican push against any significant investment in American communities, infrastructure, or jobs; or the spending of any money that doesn’t support “trickle-down” economics. “FOX News” and now several other TV stations, podcasts, radio shows, and social media channels create, amplify, and enflame the culture war narrative; with the direction in 2022 tending to come from FOX News.
Donald Trump leveraged decades of resentment, bias, and fear ginned up by years of “culture war” fomentation to solidify his “base” of voters that now motivate the entire Republican Party. Many state and federal legislators have now shifted to the far right politically. They are dead-set against compromise, bipartisanship, or anything that undermines or threatens to transform the status quo.
Culture war activity has inspired hostility and aggressiveness in everything from pushes against public health by Donald Trump that led to countless COVID-19 fatalities and illness…. to outrage about the teaching of any uncomfortable history… to pushes for school boards to ban or burn books containing nearly any reference to either diversity or to LGBTQ subjects. The culture war is now intertwined with “the big lie” pushed by Republicans that the 2020 election was not legitimate (it was). It is also tied with an increase in real-world aggressiveness and hostility. For example, culture war demonizing of LGBTQ people in 2022 is connected with potential violence that was prevented at an LGBTQ June PRIDE Month event in Idaho; when an entire militia group showing up a U-Haul van in tactical gear to cause intimidation or violent disruption.
The culture war includes a hyper-focus on the individual and individual freedom as the highest, best good; anchored in very old US mythology that celebrates “rugged individualism” and a cowboy mentality. This focus on the individual has been part of the incredible push against COVID-19 public health measures designed for protecting the greater good. The culture war contributes to social fragmentation; and to fraying of the social fabric. Devaluing of the collective makes it difficult to find compromise, create big vision together, or to do effective problem-solving.
The US Intelligence Community has stated that domestic violent extremism (DVE) is the most serious major national security threat. Some of that extremism is now associated with and driven by the Republican Party, and with the culture war. Some of these players and associations contributed to the January 6, 2021 insurrection and associated coup attempt, as is becoming clearer through the January 6 hearings.
Threats of political violence and imagery containing guns are becoming the norm for many Republicans in office or running for office. Many of these vile, hateful, or dangerous actions are not condemned by most in the Republican Party. Republicans in office or running for office with charges or allegations of assault against women or domestic violence are not condemned, either – but rather are often embraced and can win primaries and elections. Violence is also normalized in other ways, including many in the Republican Party who say that mass shootings by assault weapons such as the AR-15 are a necessary price to pay for the freedom to own a gun.
This widespread tension, aggression, and contempt contribute to a normalizing of violence. Some analysts suggest that domestic US instability and political violence could increase and set in for a decade or more. The current direction of the country in 2022 is not going in a way that seeks to collectively disarm, diffuse, defuse, or de-escalate this situation in any real or metaphorical way. Changing that is behind some of the Shift the Country structure and intention.
Risk 4: Faith Is Diminishing In Democracy & In The Social Contract
American voters have historically low levels of voter participation and civic engagement compared to healthier and actively flourishing democracies. Those democracies often have simpler and clearer simple majority and popular vote provisions, and less provisions to protect minority party power.
That structural protection of minority party power contributes to incredible cynicism, resentment, and disempowerment in the US. Democrats were promised fabulous things in the 2020 election after helping to elect President Biden and to get a US Senate majority – only Congress remains deadlocked because of the outdated filibuster rule (explained above), and because of two Democratic Party Senators who are essentially working to uphold the status quo that protects minority party power.
The Trump Administration; the January 6, 2021 insurrection and corresponding coup attempt; and other attacks on federal and state institutions have weakened public perceptions about the strength of government and its systems.
The fact that there was a coup attempt on the US government and there has been no legal or political accountability for most of the higher up and elected officials who were involved is extremely exasperating and maddening to the American public. Part of the social contract is the rule of law. If the rule of law only applies to the middle class but not the political class – does the rule of law matter? Support of the illegal insurrection and coup attempt by most of the remaining Republican Party also undermines the social contract, norms, ethics, values, democracy itself, and the rule of law.
Voters who have lost faith in democracy, the common good, shared society, and the social contract have a hard time getting motivated to vote for what they often perceive is more of the same even from Democrats; perhaps again not recognizing the risks from not voting – and therefore letting Republicans who don’t support democracy win elections.
A loss of faith also comes from the government not functioning well or serving the majority of Americans. The US is not working collectively to problem-solve, address, or mitigate the threats and vulnerabilities identified by the US Intelligence Community including domestic violent extremism, climate change, decreased innovation, increasing competition for food and water, and the increasing number of failed nation-states.
The US government has not invested heavily in Americans, American communities, or infrastructure since the civil rights era – that’s 50 years of accumulated resentment as communities have atrophied and the US has fallen behind in the world. The justice system, economic systems, zoning, and all kinds of other systems tend to favor the status quo and not to foster equity and inclusion.
Our focus as a country has not been on building a flourishing, functioning, equitable, inclusive democracy where everyone has more of a chance to thrive. It could be; but we haven’t made that change – and it shows. People are not impressed.
When the social contract falters, it is easier for an authoritarian movement with capable demagogues to move in and get traction. “Strongmen” types present themselves as easy fixers – if we just give them more power. The US Republican Party is becoming more the party of authoritarianism. The national Republican Party has not updated its party platform since 2016; instead deliberately deferring to Trump’s desires. US Senate Republican lead Mitch McConnell brazenly declared that he would explain the Republican Party agenda after the 2022 election. Texas Republicans just adopted a 2022 party platform that specifically contradicts democratic principles, advocates for secession, and effectively prohibits cooperation with Democrats while legitimizing hate and intolerance.
A loss of faith in democracy, the social contract, and the corresponding devaluing of the greater good make it difficult to hold on to democracy because people feel disenfranchised, disenchanted, disempowered, cynical, and hopeless.
Persistent shocks from the Trump Administration, the COVID-19 pandemic, an insurrection, mass shootings, Russia’s war on Ukraine, supply chain interruptions, threats of political violence, gas prices, and now inflation keep people in shock and overwhelmed. The overwhelm combined with the cynicism and disempowerment help aggressive authoritarian-wannabes move in on accumulating power… and that’s the moment we’re in.
Risk 5: Frayed Social Fabric Depletes Our Collective Response Capacity
It’s difficult to respond collectively or in major alliances to the crises of democracy when the country has become fragmented; and when the social fabric has become frayed, stretched, torn, and cut.
Collective response in the midst of high-stakes risk and tragedy is always difficult, but it’s even harder when the society is not cohesive and well-functioning. It’s difficult to do collective problem-solving or consensus building when contempt, aggressiveness, threats, and political violence are also on the rise. Contempt in the US was already beyond levels measured in Israel between Israelis and Palestinians prior to the 2016 election – it has since increased.
This is a list of factors and impacts relating to the frayed social fabric in the US:
An erosion of common vision, values, morals, and ethics.
There is not currently a great emphasis on working together for the greater good, the common good, or the collective.
There is not currently a strong sense of what’s at the heart and soul of America.
There is not currently a center of gravity for a common vision of what Americans want this country to be, and of the values we cherish in common.
Increased classless, rude, crass, and aggressive behaviours condoned or not condemned.
Corruption and ethics violations in government with no repercussions.
Increased empowerment of intolerance, bias, bigotry, and racism.
Increased fear of neighbors and community members on any political side for various reasons.
Widespread availability of firearms.
Increased visible preponderance of firearms via expanded open-carry laws and a culture of intimidation.
Increased displays of aggressiveness, intolerance, disrespect, hatred, and violence. For example, flags and bumper stickers declaring “F*** Biden,” or another version of that, which is “Let’s Go Brandon.” For another example: hanging black flags, which indicate a willingness to commit violence against fellow Americans.
Increased displays, memes, messages, and sharing of known racist or bigoted symbols.
A rise in gun deaths and in active shooters, and a corresponding willingness by Republicans and the corresponding culture war to write off this violence as a necessary cost to gun rights.
A perception that there is not enough, or that someone else got what you deserved.
“Othering” of people deemed not valuable, not important, or less than human in some way; which leads to attempts to justify policy decisions or violence against targeted groups. This has also been an issue for COVID-19 virus spread mitigation and the common good.
A hyper-focus on individualism as the highest best good, on rugged individualism, on individual freedoms, and on a sort of cowboy mentality.
A focus on masculinity associated with certain perceptions of what toughness, strength, and ruggedness are; often associated with aggression, threats, or implications of violence.
Widespread resentment, often leveraged by politicians seeking to scapegoat or place blame on the causes for it. In reality, Republicans have driven a successful effort not to invest significantly in American cities, communities, innovation, or infrastructure since we were all asked to share better in the civil rights area. 50 years of not investing in Americans has a toll.
The height of the US’ post World War II manufacturing capacity and flourishing is often revered as the height of success, but was possible primarily because of the decimation of manufacturing in war-torn countries and because other countries did not yet have manufacturing capacity. As the rest of the world’s manufacturing capacity matured by the 1970s, the US has never collectively strategically retooled its economy or educational structure to be more competitive worldwide.
Real wage decreases, a stagnant minimum wage, a vastly increased wealth gap, and astronomical CEO pay have all eroded the social fabric. Households with two parents used to be able to make it on one income and now often need two or more to survive. The wealth gap increased during the pandemic. Many big businesses also appear to be thriving during this time of inflation; even as many Americans struggle to keep up.
Civic engagement, community activities, and volunteerism have decreased as people need to work more to make ends meet and have less time for activity outside the home.
Union participation has decreased and along with it its community.
Community fixtures like nonprofits and churches have decreased membership and activity.
We’re not working collectively on the big, complicated, “wicked” problems as a society.
Corruption and widespread lies make it more difficult to trust each other and government.
The US Intelligence Community has assessed that domestic violent extremism is a major threat to national security. It also heavily erodes the social fabric.
Instability and political violence are on the rise; contributing to an increase in fear and a decrease in public activity and civic engagement.
Threats of political violence are allowed, are increasing, and are not condemned on many TV and radio channels, on podcast, nor on social media. Advertisers on those platforms are also not regularly pressured not to support such content, and it continues and increases.
Increased fear of political violence and election violence can suppress the vote.
Fear of political threats and violence is contributing to the erosion and good functioning of government at every level. A poorly functioning government erodes trust; in a vicious spiral.
The trauma and related effects from repeated, persistent shocks over several years through the Trump Administration, the pandemic, an insurrection, mass shootings, Russia’s war on Ukraine, supply chain interruptions, threats of political violence, and now inflation have countless effects on the social fabric, trust, and cohesion of a society.
Please share this post, and talk about it with people you know. So much is at stake.
We have things that can help, at www.shiftthecountry.com. This post is also on the website.
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